Please note: this snapshot is only one source of information that is needed to understand seasonal conditions such as drought to inform government and industry.
The
Tasmanian Seasonal Conditions Report (Indicators Snapshot) is produced by the Department to provide a brief snapshot of current seasonal, economic and agronomic conditions for Tasmania. The snapshot is updated by AgriGrowth Tasmania within the Department.
May 2026 Seasonal Conditions Report
Tasmanian Seasonal Conditions Insights Commentary for May 2026 (PDF 946Kb)
Drought cycle status
| Average Seasonal Conditions |
Flinders Island, King Island, Circular Head, West Coast, Derwent Valley, Central Highlands, Tasman Peninsula |
Preparedness
|
North east, south east, east coast, midlands
|
| Emerging Drought Conditions | Nil
|
| In Drought | Nil
|
Transition to Recover
| Nil
|
Refer to: Fact Sheet: Seasonal Conditions and Drought – Tasmania (March 2026) for details on the phased drought decision-making framework used in Tasmania:
Seasonal Conditions and Drought Tasmania -Fact Sheet (PDF 339Kb)
Primary Indicators
Tasmania experienced predominantly below average rainfall for parts of the west and south-west, above average for parts of the east and north-east, and average for most of the rest of the state.
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting below‑average winter rainfall and warmer‑than‑average temperatures.
Additional Climatic Indicators
Soil moisture (partial improvement)
Soil moisture also responded positively to the May rainfall, particularly along the east coast. Conditions there improved from very much below-average to generally below-average, signalling a partial but not complete recovery of soil water. However, below-average to very much below-average soil moisture continues through the Fingal Valley and midlands, where profiles remain notably dry compared with other regions. The western half of Tasmania is likewise still characterised by below-average soil moisture with localised very much below-average patches, suggesting that deeper soil layers have yet to fully recharge after the prolonged dry period.
Run-off (partial improvement)
Runoff conditions improved markedly in the eastern half of the State during May, following recent heavy rainfall. Most eastern catchments returned to near‑normal runoff, with above average streamflow recorded around Triabunna, Orford and the Hobart surrounds, and very much above average runoff on kunanyi / Mt Wellington. In contrast, below-average runoff persisted across northern areas from Launceston through to Devonport and also affected parts of the west and south west, indicating ongoing hydrological stress in these regions despite improvements in the east..
Water (restrictions easing)
Water access activity was typical for May, with a noticeable decrease in the number of restrictions and increase in the number of flood and opportunistic takes issued from May last year.
Tasmanian Irrigation will continue to monitor dam levels around the State as catchment recovery and storage inflows may remain below normal on some schemes due to the continued dry conditions. At the end of May, nine of Tasmanian Irrigation’s 22 dams on operational schemes were below 50 per cent of capacity.
Economic and Agronomic Indicators
Markets (evolving)
Fuel and fertiliser prices remain high. Some businesses are passing on the cost. Inflation remains high. Continued uncertainty and high input prices expected to weigh on the global economy.
Livestock (strong prices continue)
Domestic prices for red meat remain strong with sheep meat and beef prices higher than the same time last year.
Horticulture (harvest nearly complete)
Wine grape yields challenged by seasonal conditions. Berry harvest season complete. Potatoes still being harvested through May.
Field Crops (winter sowing begin)
Some cereals have begun to be sown. Recent rains have lifted sentiment.
Fodder Availability
Pasture growth continues to slow as weather cools in the lead to winter. There is sufficient supply of fodder in the market and prices remain reasonable.
Social Indicators
On-ground intelligence
Sentiment is mixed with input prices still high whilst farm gate prices for select products remain strong. Recent rains have also lifted sentiment amongst some producers.
Support
Support measures are always available to farmers in need. Support available includes:
Local Economy
The monthly inflation series showed the inflation rate was 4.2% in the twelve months to April, a lower rate than in March. The Bank will make its next interest rate decision 16 June 2026.
Freight and logistics
Freight services are operating normally. Freight costs high reflecting increased fuel prices.
Resources and more information
The National Drought Agreement (NDA) between the Australian, state and territory governments was updated in 2024. It provides
an overarching framework for nationally coordinated drought policy.
a clear pathway for how jurisdictions will work together on drought policies and programs to help farming businesses, farming families and farming communities to manage and prepare for future challenges and risks in a variable and changing climate.
The Tasmanian Drought Framework has been developed on a 'phased approach' to the drought cycle that uses meteorological (rainfall), agronomic (production) and socio-economic indicators to determine if an area is moving towards or away from a drought.
Seasonal Conditions and Drought Tasmania -Fact Sheet (PDF 360Kb)
National Drought Agreement (PDF 234Kb)
More information is available through the below links for Seasonal Conditions:
Weathernow Map - Real time weather and climate information tools
Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) - Long-range weather, climate and hydrology
NRE Tas Water Portal - Where all water data including current and historic river flow data is held.
Tasmanian Irrigation Dam Levels - Tasmanian Irrigation has developed a new system that enables reporting on irrigation scheme water storages. This data is updated daily at 00:15 Hrs AEST.
Farming Forecaster - Developed with graziers, Farming Forecaster places soil moisture, local weather, pasture production, and livestock performance information at graziers' fingertips.
Please note: Information on this webpage provides general information relating to seasonal conditions and the State’s agricultural sector and food production. Its contents are intended for informational purposes only. The Crown in Right of the State of Tasmania, its officers, employees and agents do not accept liability, however arising, including liability for negligence, for any loss arising from the use or reliance upon the content of this document. No liability or responsibility is accepted for the consequences of any inaccuracy in this document, and persons relying upon it do so at their own risk absolutely.
Subscribe to the Seasonal Conditions Report