Please note: this is not the current snapshot. This page contains an archive of the previous seasonal conditions.
The Tasmanian Seasonal Conditions Report (Indicators Snapshots) is produced by the Department to provide a brief snapshot of current seasonal, economic and agronomic conditions for Tasmania. The snapshot is updated by AgriGrowth Tasmania within the Department.
October 2025
Tasmanian Seasonal Conditions Insights Commentary for October 2025 (PDF 654Kb)
Drought cycle status
| Average Seasonal Conditions | North East, East Coast, Flinders Island, King Island, Circular Head, West Coast, Derwent Valley, Central Highlands, |
Preparedness
| South East, Tasman Peninsula |
| Emerging Drought Conditions | Nil |
| In Drought | Nil |
| Transition to Recover | Nil
|
Refer to: Fact Sheet: Seasonal Conditions and Drought – Tasmania (September 2025) for details on the phased drought decision-making framework used in Tasmania.
Seasonal Conditions and Drought Tasmania -Fact Sheet (PDF 339Kb)
Primary indicators
Rainfall totals in October were higher than usual across most of Tasmania, helping to ease dry conditions in some areas. However, parts of the east and north recorded rainfall close to the long-term average, meaning those regions saw less improvement compared to the rest of the state. This late-season rain may have provided some short-term relief for pastures and water storages, but it’s unlikely to fully offset the overall dry trend experienced throughout the year.
Between November 2024 and October 2025, most of Tasmania had less rain than usual. Large areas of the south, east, and some areas in the west were among the driest spots, ranking in the bottom 20–30% compared to normal years. This lack of rainfall has put pressure on agriculture, with reduced soil moisture affecting pasture growth and crop yields and increasing reliance on irrigation in many regions.
Tasmania is expected to have warmer-than-usual temperatures over the next three months, which could increase evaporation and put extra pressure on soil moisture and water supplies. Rainfall is likely to be patchy—some regions may get more rain than usual, while others could stay dry, depending on local weather patterns. For agriculture, this means producers will need to plan for variable conditions: warmer weather could boost pasture growth where rain falls, but in drier areas, it may lead to increased livestock management, reduced crop yields, and higher irrigation demand.
Additional Climatic Indicators
Soil moisture (mixed - still dry at depth)
Surface soil moisture in October across Tasmania was generally near to above average, especially in the west and south, while deep soil moisture remained very much below average statewide, indicating persistent long-term deficits despite recent rainfall.
Run-off (Average to above average)
Runoff was high in parts of Tasmania, especially in the West and South, where rainfall exceeded infiltration capacity and led to strong catchment responses, while eastern regions remained average to dry.
Water access (Continued rainfall boosts water storage)
On-farm dam storages and irrigation scheme storages received good inflows from consistent rainfall through October.
All Tasmanian Irrigation schemes are to open irrigation seasons with 100 per cent allocations.
For run-of-river irrigators with water access arrangements under the Water Management Act 1999, October saw an increased amount of flood and opportunistic takes available as a result of the beneficial rainfall received. There were limited numbers of water restrictions imposed.
Agricultural production
Overall, short-term conditions look positive for production, but the lack of deep soil moisture means crops and pastures will remain heavily reliant on irrigation and timely rainfall through summer.
Economic and Agronomic Indicators
Markets (Stable)
October was a relatively stable month for Tasmanian producers, supported by strong red meat export performance and steady global indicators such as exchange rates, oil prices, and food retail spending. However, domestic inflation continues to trend upward, which is a concern for agriculture. Rising inflation can increase input costs—such as fuel, feed, and fertiliser—while also influencing interest rate decisions. Higher interest rates would raise the cost of borrowing for farm businesses, impacting cash flow and investment plans. Additionally, changes in household spending could affect domestic demand for premium Tasmanian products, while shifts in Australia’s exchange rate may alter competitiveness in export markets.
Livestock (Strong prices continue)
Red meat prices in Tasmania remained firm, with strong demand from re-stockers and processors driving cattle and lamb prices higher, particularly for feeder heifers and heavy lambs.
Dairy
While national milk production trends were slightly positive, Tasmania’s output remains steady rather than surging. Some industry participants are reporting an “average” season, reflecting the lingering impact of earlier dry conditions and depleted soil profiles. Irrigation continued to play a key role in maintaining production levels. Strong global demand and firm farmgate milk prices is supporting profitability. Export returns for dairy products remained resilient, aided by a weaker Australian dollar, which improved competitiveness in Asian markets.
Horticulture (New season begins)
Tasmania’s horticulture sector remained strong in October, supported by good growing conditions in many areas and the start of the summer fruit season. Strawberries began appearing on local supermarket shelves, and growers are preparing for cherries, raspberries, and blueberries to follow in the coming weeks.
Field crops (Steadily growing)
Field crop production in Tasmania was steady in October, with growers reaching the critical growth stages of winter crops like wheat, barley, and canola. Rainfall during the month improved soil moisture and supported crop growth, but earlier dry conditions in some regions limited yield potential. Canola crops are expected to have good oil content, and barley quality looks strong, with malting grades likely to attract premiums.
Pasture
Pasture growth is increasing as soil temperatures rise, with leaf emergence rates at 9-10 days. Target growth rates are still lightly below average.
Fodder Availability: Silage making is underway in some areas, with rain limiting some access. Hay will be cut in next few months, but paddocks are locked up. Grain supply remains normal.
Social Indicators
On-ground intelligence
Improved rainfall in most regions has lifted spirits among Tasmanian farming communities. Community engagement is strong, with farm extension events and workshops well attended. However, dry conditions in the South East, rising input costs, reports of some wind/storm damage, and increased pest activity continue to create stress for some producers, highlighting the need for ongoing support and resilience.
Freight and logistics
No reported disruptions or delays reported, with regular freight operations across Bass Strait.
There are no known areas of concern for freight to King Island or Flinders Island as of 5 November 2025.
Cattle movements for King and Flinders Island remain lower than in previous years, with this likely due to lower stocking numbers after last year’s destocking.
November 2025
Seasonal Conditions Insights Commentary for November 2025 (PDF 679Kb)
Drought cycle status
| Average Seasonal Conditions | North East, East Coast, Flinders Island, King Island, Circular Head, West Coast, Derwent Valley, Central Highlands |
Preparedness
| South East, Tasman Peninsula |
| Emerging Drought Conditions | Nil
|
| In Drought | Nil |
| Transition to Recover | Nil
|
Refer to: Fact Sheet: Seasonal Conditions and Drought – Tasmania (September 2025) for details on the phased drought decision-making framework used in Tasmania.
Seasonal Conditions and Drought Tasmania -Fact Sheet (PDF 339Kb)
Primary Indicators
Rainfall totals in November were above average for most of Tasmania and close to average for parts of the north-east improving the previous dry conditions for the majority of the State.
For the 12 months from December 2024 to November 2025, Tasmania experienced widespread below-average rainfall, with much of the east, northeast, and central regions classified as “very much below average," a small southwest area recording its driest year on record, and only a tiny south-central patch showing above-average rainfall.
The BoM long-range forecast for December 25 to February 26 indicates a neutral rainfall outlook, meaning there is no strong signal for above or below average rainfall across the State.
Additional Climatic Indicators
Soil moisture (improving with continued rainfall)
In November 2025, soil moisture in Tasmania was mostly above normal, especially in the west and south. These areas had much wetter conditions than usual, while the central and eastern regions were close to normal. With rains, soil moisture was higher than typical for this time of year.
Run-off (Average)
In November 2025, runoff across Tasmania was mostly near normal, showing a shift from the wetter conditions seen in October. Most areas had average runoff, with only the far northeast slightly drier than usual.
Water access (Irrigation season well underway)
For run-of-river irrigators with water access arrangements under the Water Management Act 1999, water access improved in November, with more flood take notices and fewer restriction notices issued, reflecting the influence of rainfall patterns.
Tasmanian Irrigation (TI) has reported improved dam storage levels, and all irrigation schemes have commenced the 2025–26 season with full (100%) allocations.
Agricultural production
Overall, short-term conditions look positive for production, but the lack of deep soil moisture means crops and pastures will continue to remain heavily reliant on irrigation and timely rainfall through summer.
Economic and Agronomic Indicators
Markets (Stable)
The domestic economy has remained relatively steady. Export markets are generally robust. Dairy export prices may be lower in the short term due to higher global supply of milk.
Livestock (Strong prices continue)
Red meat prices in Tasmania remained firm, with strong demand from re-stockers and processors driving cattle and lamb prices higher, particularly for feeder heifers and heavy lambs.
Dairy (Spring growth improves performance)
Tasmania's dairy industry saw a strong rebound in November, leading Australian states in milk production recovery following improved seasonal conditions, with spring growth outpacing September's dip. However, cooler-than-average temperatures slowed pasture growth and cow performance, impacting overall productivity on dairy farms.
Horticulture (New season begins)
Cooler growing conditions have delayed the cherry season, but yields remain promising. Tasmanian cherries are expected to appear in stores from mid to late December. Berry crops are also experiencing delays due to the cooler weather.
Field crops (Steadily growing)
Final growth stages, with irrigation and continued rainfall critical for grain fill with strong winds continuing.
Pasture (Slower than usual)
Pasture growth still slower than normal due to colder temperatures
Fodder Availability: Silage making is underway in some areas, with rain limiting some access. Hay will be cut in next few months, but paddocks are locked up. Grain supply remains normal.
Social Indicators
On-ground intelligence
Sentiment has lifted slightly again from last month, with average and above average rainfall across the State giving optimism to farmers. Ongoing wind and cold temperatures have been a challenge for many.
Freight and logistics
No reported disruptions or delays reported, with regular freight operations across Bass Strait.
Shipping services for King and Flinders Islands are operating normally. The total number of animals shipped YTD is less than the same time in 2024, as the season is positive, producers are holding onto their stock.
December 2025
Seasonal Conditions Insights Commentary for December 2025 (PDF 639Kb)
Drought cycle status
Refer to: Fact Sheet: Seasonal Conditions and Drought – Tasmania (September 2025) for details on the phased drought decision-making framework used in Tasmania.
Seasonal Conditions and Drought Tasmania -Fact Sheet (PDF 339Kb)
Primary Indicators
Rainfall totals in December were below to very much below average across parts of northern and north western Tasmania, including the Furneaux Islands, while some central and southern inland areas recorded above average rainfall. Over the 12 month period from January to December 2025, rainfall was below average across most of Tasmania, with the Tasman Peninsula and the far north east experiencing very much below average totals.
The Bureau of Meteorology outlook for January to March 2026 indicates a high likelihood of above average maximum and minimum temperatures across Tasmania. Rainfall is forecast to be below average in southern areas, with no strong rainfall signal for the remainder of the state.
Additional Climatic Indicators
Soil moisture (Near average)
Soil moisture declined from the above‑average levels recorded in November to near‑average conditions in December, consistent with the reduced rainfall. However, the West and Central Highlands continued to record above to very much above‑average soil moisture, reflecting earlier wet conditions.
Run-off (Average)
Runoff was below to very much below average in the North, North-east, and Midlands, representing a decline from the average conditions recorded in November. In contrast, the West and South-west maintained near-average runoff, following several months of above-average streamflow.
Water (Irrigation season well underway)
Below average rainfall for December resulted in an increase in water access restrictions due to reduced river levels. Irrigation schemes are in full swing.
Economic and Agronomic Indicators
Markets (Stable)
Beef exports face a dynamic environment due to tariffs influencing market conditions but economic environment and producer confidence has largely remained positive for the broader agriculture industry.
Livestock (Strong prices continue)
Red meat prices in Tasmania remained firm, with strong demand from re-stockers and processors driving cattle and lamb prices higher, particularly for feeder heifers and heavy lambs.
Horticulture (Cool weather delays)
Cherry and berry season delayed due to cooler weather. Quality expected to be excellent all round and volumes reported to be up on previous years.
Field crops (Harvest approaching)
Final growth stages, with harvest beginning with canola at the end of December.
Pasture growth lifting after cooler temperatures.
Fodder Availability: Hay and silage cutting well underway, quality reported to be average. Grain supply remains normal. No constraints in local supply availability.
Social Indicators
On-ground intelligence
Sentiment remains positive as commodity prices remain steady.
Support
Support measures are always available to farmers in need. Support available includes:
- Rural financial counselling service
- Farm Household Allowance
- AgriGrowth Loan Scheme
- Farm Management Deposits
- Regional Investment Corporation Loans
Local Economy
The monthly inflation series showed the inflation rate was 3.4% in the twelve months to November down from 3.8% in the twelve months to October.
Freight and logistics
Freight services are operating normally, with normal seasonal increases for fresh freight produce occurring.
The total number of animals shipped YTD is less than the same time in 2024.
January 2026
Tasmanian Seasonal Conditions Insights Commentary for January 2026 (PDF 563Kb)
Drought cycle status
Refer to: Fact Sheet: Seasonal Conditions and Drought – Tasmania (March 2026) for details on the phased drought decision-making framework used in Tasmania.
Seasonal Conditions and Drought Tasmania -Fact Sheet (PDF 339Kb)
Primary Indicators
Rainfall totals in January were very much below average across the west, south and most of the north, average for parts of the east and north-east, and above average for a patch of the north-east.
The 12-month rainfall map for February 2025 to January 2026 indicates that it has been a predominantly dry year across Tasmania with widespread below average rainfall and pockets of very much below average rainfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting below‑average autumn rainfall and warmer‑than‑average temperatures.
Additional Climatic Indicators
Soil moisture (trending down)
Soil moisture eased back to around average across most of Tasmania in January. Areas of below average soil moisture began to emerge along the northern coastal fringe and the far North-east, highlighting developing dryness in these zones. Pockets of the East Coast continued to show below average soil moisture.
Run-off (below average)
Below to very much below average runoff across the North-west, North, North-east and Upper Derwent, indicating reduced streamflow and tightening surface water availability in these regions. In contrast, the West and South-west remained close to average, suggesting a relative buffering of hydrological conditions there compared with the drying north.
Water access (reflecting lower rainfall and streamflow)
Water management activity increased as more trigger thresholds were met, resulting in a number of restriction notices.
Tasmanian Irrigation (TI) storages decreased across most regions in line with seasonal demand and lower rainfall, with TI breaking its water delivery record of 24,349 megalitres in January.
Agricultural Production
Overall, rainfall would be welcomed to refresh pastures and support the transition into autumn, though those still completing harvest are hoping the autumn break holds off until remaining crops are off paddocks and stored in silos.
Economic and Agronomic Indicators
Markets (stable)
US demand for imported beef remains strong and prices continue to be firm. No reported impacts from Chinese tariffs. Reserve Bank has raised interest rate to 3.85%. The Australian dollar strengthened.
Livestock (strong prices continue)
Red meat prices in Tasmania higher than last month particularly for lambs. Sheep and cattle numbers processed indicated to be robust.
Dairy (continued strong production)
After a slow start earlier in the season, the state saw strong growth compared to other regions, buoyed by improving seasonal conditions. Despite national year-to-date milk intake remaining down slightly, Tasmania stood out with notable gains, reflecting robust spring pasture growth and favourable feed availability—especially as grain prices eased and some crops were diverted to hay production.
Horticulture (cool weather delays)
Cooler weather delayed ripening for cherry and berry producers. Quality expected to be excellent all round. Some wine producers also indicating two-three weeks delay to harvest.
Field Crops (harvest has begun)
Yields for grass seed, canola, wheat, and barley better than expected. Poppy and pyrethrum harvesting to be later than usual.
Pasture (irrigation key in strong growth rates)
Dryland pastures browned off and entered dormancy typical for summer, while irrigated pastures continued performing strongly. Producers increasingly relied on irrigated pasture and fodder crops to maintain livestock growth rates.
Social Indicators
On-ground intelligence
Sentiment remains positive as commodity prices remain steady.
Freight and logistics
Freight services are operating normally.
The total number of animals shipped YTD is higher for Flinders and lower for King Island compared to January 2025.