The ever-increasing impact of climate change presents significant challenges to the availability and timing of water resources. The current climate change projections used in catchment yield modelling in Tasmania, while still valuable, may not fully capture the future risks to our water resources due to their dated nature.
Addressing this concern, the Catchment Yield Science Update Project was initiated to enhance our understanding of water availability in a changing climate. The first phase of the project has focused on identifying contemporary climate change projection datasets and determining the best approach to incorporating these into the State's hydrological models.
In collaboration with consultant WMAwater, NRE Tas has investigated four existing climate datasets using six catchment hydrological models: Pipers, Leven, North West Bay, Prosser, Ansons, and Duck. This has confirmed that the use of the current projections dataset (Tasmania Sustainable Yields) is fit-for-purpose whilst the newest climate science is prepared for Tasmania.
With the assistance of WMAwater and CSIRO climate experts, a research report has and will be released late 2023. It will outline the preferred approach for incorporating new climate projections into our hydrological models and produce new yield estimates for use in water management.
The second phase of the project, which is being developed, involves implementing the preferred approach and updating the models. This will ensure that we have accurate and reliable information to guide our water resource management practices in the face of a changing climate.
The Catchment Yield Science Update Project (Phase 1) was funded by the Australian Government through the National Water Grid Authority, in partnership with the Tasmanian State Government.
|Mid 2023||Completion of
Phase I of the project - identifying contemporary climate change projection datasets and pathway to update hydrological estimates for Tasmania|
|Late 2023||Commencement of
Phase 2 of the project - including investigations to understand climate variability|
|2024 - 2027 ||Progression of
Phase 2 of the project - to implement the full pathway including sourcing and intepreting suitable climate project data and updating Tasmania's hydrological models|